Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
